Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 2.275778 2.418776 2.570142 2.742982 2.935733 3.145081 3.391011
2025-07-27 2.097446 2.298449 2.522470 2.793204 3.115077 3.490198 3.967667
2025-08-03 1.949647 2.179089 2.443617 2.775906 3.189298 3.696950 4.384967
2025-08-10 1.837254 2.084508 2.377098 2.756028 3.245166 3.872890 4.771932
2025-08-17 1.740246 1.998041 2.309531 2.723116 3.273727 4.007669 5.112085
2025-08-24 1.658128 1.922775 2.248217 2.689666 3.293480 4.126266 5.438357
2025-08-31 1.601917 1.875368 2.217391 2.691161 3.356934 4.307812 5.880711
2025-09-07 1.558525 1.840970 2.199963 2.707356 3.439493 4.522451 6.406832
2025-09-14 1.497588 1.780404 2.144067 2.665698 3.433346 4.599505 6.710929
2025-09-21 1.441200 1.722993 2.089042 2.620986 3.417741 4.657893 6.988476
2025-09-28 1.387459 1.666709 2.032633 2.570436 3.388510 4.689699 7.219545
2025-10-05 1.369829 1.657556 2.039648 2.611089 3.501609 4.967791 7.982573
2025-10-12 1.353143 1.649452 2.048306 2.655614 3.626301 5.284810 8.915474
2025-10-19 1.337862 1.642475 2.057952 2.701863 3.757547 5.631479 10.020245
2025-10-26 1.304505 1.609079 2.028157 2.685414 3.781808 5.780478 10.696445
2025-11-02 1.272672 1.576587 1.998136 2.666581 3.799876 5.918890 11.388891
2025-11-09 1.239266 1.540719 1.961677 2.635396 3.793508 6.006948 11.972543
2025-11-16 1.207661 1.506384 1.926123 2.603688 3.783558 6.086066 12.559239
2025-11-23 1.186969 1.486876 1.911669 2.605105 3.833313 6.297886 13.643763
2025-11-30 1.171137 1.473746 1.906082 2.620458 3.909623 6.578685 15.098418
2025-12-07 1.141812 1.440274 1.868620 2.580960 3.879328 6.613409 15.683893
2025-12-14 1.113108 1.406982 1.830412 2.538542 3.840623 6.624247 16.190421
2025-12-21 1.084249 1.372795 1.789872 2.490557 3.788188 6.596927 16.539538